The world of high technology today is enough to mesmerise anyone. It is a battle of the fast growth giants. Many of the main players have only been around for a few years but they are massive. The strategic game is complex and fast moving. Who will win? That is anyone’s guess.
The massive drive for growth by each main “contestant” and their battle strategies can inspire and teach us all a great deal:
It is interesting how Zuckerburg’s desire to be part of a group played so powerfully into our desire for social connection. Who would have guessed Facebook would have soared past so many competitors. Years ago we were told, if Facebook were a country, it would be bigger than Italy (60m people). Just a couple of years later there are 800m active subscribers of which over 50% log on every day! Revenues of $4.27 billion in 2011 mean it is still a relatively small player but growing fast. The other day I heard about a company that shut down because “Facebook had poached their staff”. Now that is the sort of thing that only happens in war time……
The most fascinating thing though- with so many people tracking what other people are doing, Facebook is, in effect, powerfully changing the way people search the web!
Google versus Facebook
Google thought they had control of the web market but, due to this change, during 2011 they found Facebook was stealing their share of advertising! That battle is far from over though. After all, Google is still much larger, more than $35bn and growing at around 30% pa. They came back fast with a very impressive counter attack. Google+ is so good with so many new features being added it has caught people’s attention. Their CEO, Larry Page described it as “a totally magical experience.” What is more they trumped Facebook by improving on some of the things we hate – like Facebook’s annoying approach to our privacy! As a result, just months after the launch Google+ already has 65m subscribers. In fact nearly 25% of those joined in December alone.
Facebook wants to go public later in 2012 and is expecting to raise a lot of money. So CEO Zuckerberg is leading a counter attack, with has his staff working around the clock to pull ahead yet again. If you pass their Palo Alto building you will see the Lockdown light on the top of their building!
Apple
Of course Apple is one of the leaders of this war at the moment. Everyone wonders where they will head next and how long their massive growth will continue. Sales of iPhones and IPADs seem to keep on going up and up. For the last 2 years, even while consumers want to save money, they have been at the top of people’s Christmas lists.
Their plans obviously go far further than that though. With the mass of app.s, their move into iCloud and astute ways of acquiring massive databases of target customers, it will be interesting to see where they end up. Not to mention the revolutionary television we have heard rumoured for so long.
A weird anomaly is that Wall Street values the stock so relatively low. Morgan Stanley worked out they must only expect 2% growth pa! From a company at over $108bn revenue pa that grew over 60% this year with signs that that massive growth will continue!
Amazon versus Apple
Oddly, none of the IPAD competitors seem to have gained much traction- until the Amazon Fire came along. PCWorld indicates well over 3 million were sold in December when it launched. It is, of course, far too early to know if it will really manage to take share from Apple.
Amazon is coming at the whole tech industry from a totally different angle. They already have a massive grip on publishing and a massive database. So with the dramatic race to gain customer data and consumer concern about what companies will actually do with that data, the trust that Jeff Bozos’ has built should position them extremely well for the next round of battles.
Their growth stands at around 40% with revenue for 2010 at $34bn.
Samsung versus Apple
Here the war becomes even more complex. On the one hand Samsung are gaining impressive traction with their touch pad Android phone and are one of the more successful suppliers in the tablet market- though the market share for the Galaxy tablet is tiny in comparison to Apple of course.
By far the largest company in terms of revenue, at $220bn pa, Samsung are not growing overall like the other contenders. Yet they walk on dangerous ground. 8.7% of their DRAM chip revenue comes from Apple, who buy massive quantities for their iPhones and IPADs. An interesting position for both companies!
Where will the battle go next?
During 2012 no doubt the whole landscape will change a great deal. The wonderful thing about wars is that is gets people inventing wonderful solutions at the speed of light!
What do you think the likely outcomes of this war will be?
What good things will be created for us and which companies will come out as the winners?
